Appui au Développement d’une modélisation macro-fiscale

Within the process of democratic stabilisation, the good governance, the transparency and the accountability principles called a revision of the economic policy instruments, in particular regarding the availability and reliability of the statistical information as well as the coordination of the administrations interventions involved in data elaboration and the forecast of the macroeconomic and financial balances. In a context of ample cyclical fluctuations, it was necessary to have the tools and instruments for the analysis and the short-term macroeconomic and financial forecasts. The general objective consisted in coordinating and in assisting technically the initiatives of the DGP of the MDCI and the DGRE of the Ministry of Finance in the deepening of the macro-financial modelling and the constitution of a necessary quarterly database for the short-term forecast. The particular objectives consisted in: (i) Developing a database of quarterly data for the components of the Tunisian GDP and all the income and spending components of the State budget over the period 2000-2014; (ii) Specify and estimate a macro-financial model with quarterly data for the period 2000-2014, including relevant endogenous variables for budgetary and fiscal policies; (iii) Simulate the impacts of fiscal policies changes , for the period 2000-2014, on budget balance and macroeconomic aggregates; (iv) Quarterly data updating for the period 2000-2014 of the DGP model, based on 1983-2010 yearly data.


Project Details
Country TUNISIA
Start date 2015.10.19
End date 2016.12.31
Client EC Delegation
Sector MACRO/PUBLIC FINANCE MANAGMENT
Sub-sector Macroeconomic analysis
Ref. ADE A505-109